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AC

Absci Corp (ABSI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Absci’s Q4 2024 delivered modest partner revenue growth with a wider YoY operating loss as the company accelerated pipeline spend; cash/short-term investments ended at $112.4M with runway into 1H 2027 . The quarter’s operational focus: preparing ABS-101 (anti‑TL1A) for Phase 1 in 1H 2025 and advancing ABS-201 (anti‑PRLR for androgenic alopecia) toward Phase 1 in early 2026 .
  • Strategic developments included a new AMD collaboration with a $20M equity investment; combined with ~$20M raised via ATM in early 2025, this adds ~$40M incremental capital to fund internal programs and speeds AI compute throughput for drug design .
  • Management shifted disclosure: it will no longer guide to a target count of new partnerships and will instead provide material program updates; it still anticipates one or more new partnerships in 2025 including a Large Pharma platform deal .
  • Key potential stock reaction catalysts near term: ABS-101 Phase 1 initiation and 2H 2025 interim readout; ABS-201 clinical initiation (early 2026) in a large, consumer-driven market; and a prospective Large Pharma platform agreement .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • AMD strategic collaboration and $20M equity investment bolstered compute capacity and provided nondilutive-like capital at a premium; management emphasized training resolution, accelerated throughput, and cost efficiency from the partnership .
  • Pipeline momentum: ABS-101 on track for Phase 1 in 1H 2025 with interim data in 2H 2025; ABS‑201 development candidate nominated (anti‑PRLR) targeting androgenic alopecia with Phase 1 planned for early 2026 .
  • Cash discipline: FY2024 gross cash use (~$72M) came in better than the latest ~$75M outlook, and runway remains into 1H 2027, reducing near-term financing risk .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue base remains very small, underscoring reliance on external milestones and future partnership economics (Q4 revenue $0.665M) .
  • Operating losses widened YoY as R&D investment ramped for internal programs (Q4 R&D $18.4M vs. $12.3M YoY; Q4 net loss $29.0M vs. $23.5M YoY) .
  • Management moved away from partner-count guidance; while strategically sound, it reduces near-term visibility on external deal flow cadence, a prior focus for investors .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.27 $1.70 $0.665
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$15.26 $18.00 $18.38
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$9.35 $9.26 $8.83
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(24.75) $(27.40) $(28.98)
Net Loss/Share (Basic & Diluted)$(0.22) $(0.24) $(0.25)
Cash + ST Investments (period end, $USD Millions)$145.2 (6/30/24) $127.1 (9/30/24) $112.4 (12/31/24)

Additional context (YoY Q4): Revenue rose YoY ($0.665M vs. $0.338M), while net loss/share was flat at $(0.25) .

KPIs and cash usage:

  • FY2024 gross cash use (ex‑partnered payments): ~$(72)M vs. outlook of ~$(75)M .
  • Cash runway: sufficient into 1H 2027 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gross use of cash (ex‑partner)FY2024~$(75)M ~$(72)M actual Beat (lower spend)
Cash runwayMulti‑yearInto 1H 2027 Into 1H 2027 Maintained
ABS-101 Phase 1 start20251H 2025 1H 2025 Maintained
ABS-101 interim readout20252H 2025 2H 2025 Maintained
ABS-201 Phase 1 start20261H 2026 (Dec R&D Day) Early 2026 Maintained (timing refined)
Partnership outlook disclosure2024→20252024: targeted “at least four” partners 2025: one or more; no longer guiding partner counts; focus on material updates and Large Pharma platform deal Framework change

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/Compute partnershipsStrong AI platform; MSK co-dev; AstraZeneca milestone; no compute vendor deal highlighted (Q2/Q3) AMD collaboration + $20M equity to enhance training scale, throughput, and costs Positive escalation (compute scale-up)
Business model & disclosures2024 guidance to sign more partners (≥4) Stop partner-count guidance; focus on material program updates; expect 1+ 2025 partnerships incl. Large Pharma Evolving to program-centric disclosure
ABS-101 (anti‑TL1A)NHP 2–3x half-life, 200 mg/mL formulation; Phase 1 1H25; interim 2H25 Phase 1 1H25; interim 2H25; target engagement strategy in SAD; lower ADA potential vs competitors (preclinical) On plan; de-risking path clarified
ABS-201 (anti‑PRLR, alopecia)Undisclosed target; DC nomination expected Target disclosed (PRLR); DC nominated; Phase 1 early 2026; large U.S. market (~80–90M) Advanced with clear indication
PartnershipsAZ milestone; Twist; MSK co-dev Expect 1+ new 2025 deals including Large Pharma; interest driven by de novo capability (e.g., HIV Caldera case) Continuing; platform validation reinforced
Cash runwayInto 1H 2027 (Q2/Q3) Into 1H 2027; FY2024 spend below outlook Stable with modest improvement

Management Commentary

  • “In January, we announced a collaboration with AMD… As part of this partnership, AMD made a $20 million strategic investment in Absci… offering optimized compute solutions… reduced infrastructure costs and accelerated cycle times.”
  • “We plan to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies for ABS-101 in the first half of 2025, with an interim readout expected in the second half of this year.”
  • “ABS-201… a potential best-in-class anti‑PRLR antibody in development for androgenic alopecia… Absci anticipates initiation of a Phase 1 clinical trial… in early 2026.”
  • “Going forward, we do not plan to provide an exact number of expected new partners… but rather plan to provide material updates… We also anticipate signing one or more partnerships, including with a large pharma company.”

Q&A Highlights

  • ABS-101 clinical readout expectations: management aims to demonstrate sustained elevation of soluble TL1A after a single dose in one cohort (a key de-risking point for target engagement) .
  • ABS-201 clinical design: SAD then MAD, powered to show PoC; endpoints via well-established trichoscopy measures (terminal hair count/density) .
  • Large Pharma partnerships: broad indications; core driver is de novo capability to drug hard epitopes (e.g., ion channels, GPCRs; HIV Caldera case study resonates) .
  • Bispecific strategy: pursuing a first‑in‑class TL1A bispecific with a difficult-to-drug novel target; potential as mono‑ or bispecific therapy .
  • Spend and runway: reiterated funding into 1H 2027; ABS‑201 acceleration remains within budget .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 was limited/unavailable for a robust beat/miss analysis; the company has minimal revenue and evolving coverage. We therefore do not present quantitative beat/miss vs. consensus for the quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global where applicable.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term clinical catalyst: ABS‑101 entering the clinic in 1H 2025 with a mechanistically focused interim readout in 2H 2025; positive human target‑engagement data would de‑risk the asset and validate Absci’s design platform .
  • Emerging aesthetic/derm opportunity: ABS‑201 targets a very large self‑pay market with clear, quantitative endpoints; Phase 1 targeted for early 2026, with preclinical data showing superiority vs. minoxidil in a hair regrowth model .
  • Platform validation + compute scale: AMD investment and AZ milestone strengthen conviction in Absci’s AI design moat and capacity to tackle hard epitopes—potentially a driver of a Large Pharma platform agreement in 2025 .
  • Cash discipline reduces financing overhang: FY2024 gross cash use came below outlook and runway extends into 1H 2027, aided by ~$40M capital raised post‑2024 (AMD + ATM) .
  • Disclosure shift: moving from partner counts to program‑centric updates should focus investors on clinically and economically meaningful milestones (e.g., ABS‑101 target engagement, ABS‑201 PoC) .
  • Risk balance: very low revenue base and ongoing operating losses persist until clinical/partner milestones materialize; watch for execution against clinical timelines and a Large Pharma platform deal .

Other Relevant Press Releases (Q4 2024 window)

  • Dec 12, 2024 R&D Day: ABS‑201 DC nomination (anti‑PRLR for alopecia), ABS‑101 and ABS‑301 data updates, ABS‑501 added to pipeline; de novo HIV “Caldera” case study .
  • Nov 12, 2024: Q3 2024 results, AZ milestone delivery, Twist collaboration; reiterated 2024 cash use outlook and runway .

Notes:

  • All financial and pipeline statements referenced to Absci’s Q4 2024 earnings press release (8‑K) and earnings call. Citations are included inline for each fact.
  • *Values retrieved from S&P Global.